Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 12:30 (Talk starts at 12:45)
Location: 2nd floor Conference Room, Banner Bank Building, 950 W Bannock Street, Boise, ID 83702
Advances in Modeling Idaho's Regional Climate and Hydrology and Evaluation of the Spatial Distribution of Water Use in the Context of Changing Runoff Regimes in the Treasure Valley
Speaker: Dr. Lejo Flores, Boise State University
Regional hydrologic models are increasingly indispensable tools for managing aquatic ecosystems and water quality, and understanding response to changes in land use, climate, and other external drivers. In regions of complex terrain, moreover, regional models of climate can provide climate information with the spatiotemporal detail and fidelity needed for management applications. Recent advances in community models of climate and hydrology and access to high-performance computing have yielded new tools capable of predicting key hydrologic variables required by researchers and managers alike. We report on efforts to develop advanced datasets using these models to support water research and management in Idaho and other mountainous regions. We characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of key climate variables in the Snake River Basin from a long-term (30-year) climate dataset created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We present analyses of these model outputs, including characterization of long-term trends in these regions and comparisons with reanalysis and observationally derived datasets. The high spatiotemporal resolution of this dataset allows for development and calibration of hydrologic models that simulate the integrated surface and groundwater response of watersheds to climate and land use drivers (WRF-Hydro and ParFlow).
We have also simulated hydrologic response to six alternative climate trajectories in the Upper Boise River Basin and the associated impacts on the administration of water resources and the spatial variability of water rights in an integrated way. Annual discharge increased from historical values by 6–24% across all simulations (with an average 13% increase), reflecting an increase in precipitation in the climate projections. Discharge peaked 4–33 days earlier and streamflow center of timing occurred 4–17 days earlier by midcentury. Examining changes in the date junior water rights holders begin to be curtailed regionally, we found that it occurs at least 14 days earlier by 2100 across all simulations, with one suggesting it could occur over a month earlier. These results suggest that current methods and policies of water rights accounting and management may need to be revised moving into the future.
Location: 2nd floor Conference Room, Banner Bank Building, 950 W Bannock Street, Boise, ID 83702
Advances in Modeling Idaho's Regional Climate and Hydrology and Evaluation of the Spatial Distribution of Water Use in the Context of Changing Runoff Regimes in the Treasure Valley
Speaker: Dr. Lejo Flores, Boise State University
Regional hydrologic models are increasingly indispensable tools for managing aquatic ecosystems and water quality, and understanding response to changes in land use, climate, and other external drivers. In regions of complex terrain, moreover, regional models of climate can provide climate information with the spatiotemporal detail and fidelity needed for management applications. Recent advances in community models of climate and hydrology and access to high-performance computing have yielded new tools capable of predicting key hydrologic variables required by researchers and managers alike. We report on efforts to develop advanced datasets using these models to support water research and management in Idaho and other mountainous regions. We characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of key climate variables in the Snake River Basin from a long-term (30-year) climate dataset created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We present analyses of these model outputs, including characterization of long-term trends in these regions and comparisons with reanalysis and observationally derived datasets. The high spatiotemporal resolution of this dataset allows for development and calibration of hydrologic models that simulate the integrated surface and groundwater response of watersheds to climate and land use drivers (WRF-Hydro and ParFlow).
We have also simulated hydrologic response to six alternative climate trajectories in the Upper Boise River Basin and the associated impacts on the administration of water resources and the spatial variability of water rights in an integrated way. Annual discharge increased from historical values by 6–24% across all simulations (with an average 13% increase), reflecting an increase in precipitation in the climate projections. Discharge peaked 4–33 days earlier and streamflow center of timing occurred 4–17 days earlier by midcentury. Examining changes in the date junior water rights holders begin to be curtailed regionally, we found that it occurs at least 14 days earlier by 2100 across all simulations, with one suggesting it could occur over a month earlier. These results suggest that current methods and policies of water rights accounting and management may need to be revised moving into the future.